Donald Trump’s “America First Energy Plan”lweb.es/f1811 11.10.2016
Donald Trump’s Energy Plan: Make America energy independent, Conserve our natural habitats, reserves and resources,Declare American energy dominance a strategic economic and foreign policy goal, Unleash American untapped shale, oil, and natural gas reserves, plus hundreds of years in clean coal reserves, Become totally independent of any need to import energy from OPEC or any nations hostile to our interests, Open onshore and offshore leasing on federal lands, eliminate moratorium on coal leasing, and open shale energy deposits, Encourage the use of natural gas and other energy resources that will reduce emissions, reduce the price of energy, and increase our economic output, Rescind all job-destroying Obama executive actions, Reduce and eliminate all barriers to responsible energy production.
The oil market has experienced structural changes since prices peaked in June 2014. Prices have been driven down by supply-side factors that are principally increased production from U.S. shale and Saudi Arabia’s market share defence. At the same time operational efficiency has been increased, as for example with the companies in the U.S. shale areas, thus begging the question of whether OPEC still matters. Within this context of change it looks to be that the conventional wisdom with regard to the global oil market no longer applies. 
OEF REVIEW:The first European fuel cell of megawatt size is now operating in Germany. Contrary to conventional power plants, this energy solution delivers heat and electricity virtually absent of pollutants. It will provide clean energy for the production processes of materials specialist FRIATEC. It has a capacity of 1.4 megawatts.In terms of technology and environmental protection, fuel cells represent a promising alternative to conventional combined heat and power plants. They generate power in a non-combustion process which is virtually absent of pollutants. By using this fuel cell, FRIATEC will be able to reduce its CO2 emissions by approximately 3,000 tons per year. Karsten Wildberger, a member of the E.ON SE Board of Directors, adds: “Fuel cells are one of the key technologies for the clean energy world of tomorrow.” 
OEF REVIEW:The Brookings report “Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?” explores the effect on U.S. real GDP growth of the sharp decline in the global price of crude oil and hence in the U.S. price of gasoline after June 2014. This decline produced a stimulus of about 0.7 percentage points of real GDP growth by raising private real consumption and an additional stimulus of 0.04 percentage points reflecting a shrinking petroleum trade deficit. However, the net stimulus since June 2014 has been effectively zero. No evidence of an additional role for frictions in reallocating labor or the price of gasoline in explaining the sluggish response. Neither was there evidence of lower oil costs stimulating other business investment, nor an increase in household savings, nor of households deleveraging.
High regional gas prices in South America, most notably Argentina, are attracting US exports of domestically produced LNG, with more than 70% of landed cargoes arriving on the continent so far this year. South America has offered the most profitable destination for US exports compared with Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Regional gas markets, particularly in Argentina, are experiencing elevated prices. In an effort to stem the decline in gas production, the Argentine president cut domestic subsidies in December. His administration hopes that higher wellhead prices will revive production in older fields and stimulate new production, particularly in the Vaca Muerta Basin where large untapped volumes remain locked in shale and tight gas reservoirs. In March and April the first and second US cargoes to arrive in South America landed in Brazil, and since April, all eight US cargoes exported to the region have landed in the Southern Cone nations of Argentina and Chile.
OEF REVIEW:China’s crude oil output is at a 6-year low as the country’s state-run energy companies continued to pump less from aging, high-cost fields. Production during August dropped 9.9 percent and during the first eight months of the year output dropped 5.7 percent. The country is forecast to lead production declines across Asia, helping tighten the global market as the world’s largest consuming region relies more on overseas supplies. China’s imports rebounded last month to the highest since April. Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong pointed out that ”China’s crude output won’t see an apparent rebound unless Brent recovers to $60 a barrel level, as most of China’s aging oilfields can’t make a profit below this price,” adding that ”Massive capital expenditure cuts have translated to more oil supply destruction.”
OEF REVIEW:According to the IEA the oil glut in global oil markets will persist into late 2017 as demand growth slumps and supply proves resilient. Stocks of oil in OECD countries are swelling to levels never seen before. The combination of faltering demand and increased OPEC output pushed oil inventories in developed nations to a record in July. BNP Paribas considers that “OPEC’s long game got a little longer”, and also with regard to OPEC Petromatrix GmbH says that the organization is “trapped” since “Non-OPEC supply has been able to adjust better than expected to the lower oil prices.” 
OEF REVIEW:Oil analysts are looking to next year for a rebound. Crude has plunged as refineries created a glut of gasoline while failing to eliminate excess supply of crude. That wrecked refining margins. Yet, global oil prices will average $57 a barrel in 2017, according to the median of at least 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. “We’re looking at a market that’s still in a very slow process of rebalancing and we don’t think that you’ll get a sustainable deficit until the second quarter of 2017,” said Michael Hsueh. Oil companies’ capital expenditure reductions are set to reach $1 trillion by 2020 and this lack of investment “will have a big impact on global supply,” said Hans Van Cleef who forecast Brent will reach $70 next year. 
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Eastern Economic Forum, 2018 elections, US General Election, Syria, OPEC, Rosneft sale, Japan, oil, Russian oil and gas companies, investment in energy, natural gas exports, 50 percent ownership, oil and gas revenue, structural changes, industrial production growth
OEF REVIEW:Crude could return to $100 a barrel because the two-year market downturn has curbed investment. Except during the financial crisis in 2008, average Brent prices increased every year from 2002 to 2012, and topped $100 a barrel from 2011 to 2014 and leading companies into higher-costs projects and capacity building that outstripped demand leading eventually to a collapse in prices. 
One of the structural flaws driving China’s instability is the existance of a investment situation where profits of state-owned enterprises, known as SOEs, are largely privatised to SOE personnel and losses of SOEs are socialised on to the state budget. This is the cause of the large amount of excess capacity in China’s heavy industries today, and also of the serious non-performing loan problem in state-owned banks. The growing presence of “zombie” firms coincides with the downward trend in the growth of productivity. The social pain resulting from necessary economic adjustments will have to be addressed.
OEF REVIEW:Civilian planes landed on Subi reef and Mischief reef for the first time on July 12th giving China three operational runways in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. A military transport plane visited Fiery Cross Reef earlier this year but there is no evidence that Beijing has deployed military aircraft to these outposts. The reefs can easily accommodate any fighter-jet in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force or Naval Aviation. 
OEF REVIEW: Mid-August saw the longest period of rig expansion since the final days of the drilling boom in early 2014, according to World Oil, marking the longest period of oilfield expansion since April of that year when drillers added oil rigs nine weeks in a row, reported Baker Hughes Inc. Prompted by an oil price recovery from a 12-year low in February, producers have begun returning parked rigs to service after idling more than 1,000 rigs since the start of last year. The long-term decline in drilling expansion has led to a slowdown in production. Crude output fell by 15,000 barrels per day to 8.45 million barrels per day during the week ended August 5th. “I think it’s just a matter of time before we come into balance,” Paul Crovo, a Philadelphia-based oil and equity analyst at PNC Capital Advisors said. “We think the fundamentals will take care of themselves as we come into the third quarter and later into the fourth quarter and early 2017.”
OEF REVIEW:According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) world tight oil production is expected to more than double between 2015 and 2040, increasing from 4.98 million barrels per day in 2015 to 10.36 million barrels per day in 2040. Most of the projected increase will come from the United States, with much of the rest coming from countries such as Russia, Canada, and Argentina. U.S. tight oil production is expected to reach 7.1 million barrels per day in 2040. Tight oil production in Canada will continue to decline until 2020, and then increase over the rest of the projection period, reaching 0.76 million barrels per day in 2040. Argentina is still in the early stages of commercial tight oil production, but projections are that production will double from 2015 to 2020 and will reach 0.69 million b/d in 2040. Russia, Mexico, Colombia, Australia, and other countries that hold large technically recoverable tight oil resources are expected to contribute 18% of the projected total world tight oil production by 2040.
Hillary Clinton is promising to revitalize Pennsylvania communities hurt by a downturn in the coal and steel industries. With regard to the coal industry she asked whether there was a technology that could create clean energy from coal, and stated that she would revitalize the coal producing areas. Earlier in the primaries, Donald Trump made his position clear on the coal industry saying that he wanted clean coal and that the country would, in his words, have an amazing mining business.
OEF REVIEW:Oil investors are buying contracts that will only pay out if crude oil rises well above US$100 a barrel over the next four years – a clear sign some believe today’s bust is sowing the seeds of the next boom. The options deals, which brokers said bear the hallmarks of trades made by hedge funds, appear to be based on the belief that current low prices will generate a supply crunch. Over the last month, investors have bought call options for late 2018, 2019 and 2020 at strike prices of US$80, US$100 and US$110 a barrel. Previously, some investors had already built super-bullish positions. The options deals suggest a concern about shortages as demand begins to outstrip production – the traditional boom and bust commodities cycle.