Could Crude Fall Below $30? CEFC Head Ye Jianming 03/10/17 •lweb.es/f3762 •bit.ly/2jZgfxp
While there’s a risk oil may slide below $30 as it is displaced by alternative energy sources, it will still be used to make petrochemicals, said Ye Jianming, the head of CEFC, the Chinese company that has bought a $9 billion stake in Rosneft. CEFC plans to work with Rosneft and Abu Dhabi to produce petrochemicals for the Chinese market, he added. The company currently has more than 80 million metric tons of foreign crude oil equity, of which 42 million tons is from Rosneft, 13 million tons is from Abu Dhabi and the remaining from Chad and Kazakhstan.
OEF REVIEW:Oil investors are buying contracts that will only pay out if crude oil rises well above US$100 a barrel over the next four years – a clear sign some believe today’s bust is sowing the seeds of the next boom. The options deals, which brokers said bear the hallmarks of trades made by hedge funds, appear to be based on the belief that current low prices will generate a supply crunch. Over the last month, investors have bought call options for late 2018, 2019 and 2020 at strike prices of US$80, US$100 and US$110 a barrel. Previously, some investors had already built super-bullish positions. The options deals suggest a concern about shortages as demand begins to outstrip production – the traditional boom and bust commodities cycle.
OEF REVIEW:Technical analyst Clive P. Maund lists the reasons he believes oil prices, which recently peaked above $50 a barrel, are headed for a fall: “It still looks like oil is topping out here at about the $50 level after its substantial recovery uptrend from its February low. While we cannot be sure until it breaks down from its uptrend, the chances of its doing so soon look high for various reasons.”
OEF REVIEW:China’s crude imports will rise further from a record this year to feed its expanding refining sector and strategic reserves, according to Standard Chartered Bank. The nation’s average crude imports will rise by as much as 600,000 barrels per day this year, analysts including Priya N. Balchandani said in a March 24th report. Imports last month surged above 8 million barrels per day for the first time and exceeded volumes shipped to the U.S., the world’s top oil user, according to the bank. Standard Chartered expects China’s crude imports will top 10 million barrels per day by late 2018 or early 2019.
OEF REVIEW:U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) crude oil production is estimated to increase to record high levels in 2017, even as oil prices remain low. EIA projects GOM production will average 1.63 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and 1.79 million b/d in 2017, reaching 1.91 million b/d in December 2017. GOM production is expected to account for 18% and 21% of total forecast U.S. crude oil production in 2016 and 2017, respectively.
OEF REVIEW:The Nikkei spoke with Takashi Tsukioka, CEO at Idemitsu Kosan, a major Japanese oil refiner, about the future direction of crude prices, the outlook for shale oil players and industry realignments in Japan.
OEF REVIEW:The jump in imports, if realised, could see China overtaking the United States as the world’s largest crude importer after China’s average crude imports hit a record 6.71 million barrels per day in 2015, up 8.8 percent from a year ago. China is expected to import 860,000 barrels per day more crude this year, Yao Li, chief executive of SIA Energy said at a Platts conference.