Vitol: Shallow Market With Moments At $60 And In $40s

10/10/17 •lweb.es/f3619 •bit.ly/2zSmOLy

According to Ian Taylor, the head of oil trader Vitol, U.S. oil output could have a spike in 2018 before growth flattens for a number of years. Vitol expects U.S. output to climb by 0.5-0.6 million barrels per day next year but the increase would cause cost inflation and make some production loss-making. The anticipated slowdown in U.S. output combined with robust growth in global demand for oil should push prices above the current range of $50-60 per barrel, Taylor said. Vitol has sold most of its oil in storage as it believes the market is tightening.

Saudis Defending Sales Against Rising U.S. Exports

03/06/17 •lweb.es/f2713 •bit.ly/2oOa8ks

Saudi Arabia has cut the pricing for some of its April oil sales to Asia, showing that it is trying to lure buyers toward its lighter and less sulfurous crude varieties. “This came as a complete surprise to the market,” said Tushar Tarun Bansal, director at Ivy Global Energy in Singapore. “This is a signal from the Saudis that they are serious about market share and pricing crude competitively, and would even be open to changing the methodology if the need arises.” This is the producer’s latest effort to defend sales in Asia.

Conventional Wisdom No Longer Applies To The Oil Market

lweb.es/f1600 10.25.2016

iconThe oil market has experienced structural changes since prices peaked in June 2014. Prices have been driven down by supply-side factors that are principally increased production from U.S. shale and Saudi Arabia’s market share defence. At the same time operational efficiency has been increased, as for example with the companies in the U.S. shale areas, thus begging the question of whether OPEC still matters. Within this context of change it looks to be that the conventional wisdom with regard to the global oil market no longer applies.

South America Now A Key US LNG Market

lweb.es/f1440 10.2.2016

iconHigh regional gas prices in South America, most notably Argentina, are attracting US exports of domestically produced LNG, with more than 70% of landed cargoes arriving on the continent so far this year. South America has offered the most profitable destination for US exports compared with Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Regional gas markets, particularly in Argentina, are experiencing elevated prices. In an effort to stem the decline in gas production, the Argentine president cut domestic subsidies in December. His administration hopes that higher wellhead prices will revive production in older fields and stimulate new production, particularly in the Vaca Muerta Basin where large untapped volumes remain locked in shale and tight gas reservoirs. In March and April the first and second US cargoes to arrive in South America landed in Brazil, and since April, all eight US cargoes exported to the region have landed in the Southern Cone nations of Argentina and Chile.

IEA​: ​Oil Glut​ to Stay to Late 2017​ ​

lweb.es/f1436 10.2.2016

iconOEF REVIEW:According to ​the IEA ​the ​oil glut​ in global oil markets will persist into late​ 2017 as demand growth slumps and supply proves resilient.​ ​S​tocks of oil in OECD countries are swelling to levels never seen before.​ ​The combination of faltering demand and increased OPEC output pushed oil inventories in developed nations to a record in July.​ ​BNP Paribas ​considers​ that​ “OPEC’s long game got a little longer”, and also with regard to OPEC Petromatrix​ GmbH says that the organization is “trapped” since “Non-OPEC supply has been able to adjust better than expected to the lower oil prices.”​ ​

Oil At US$100? Hedge Funds Bet On Supply Crunch

lweb.es/f1101 7.20.16

iconOEF REVIEW:Oil investors are buying contracts that will only pay out if crude oil rises well above US$100 a barrel over the next four years – a clear sign some believe today’s bust is sowing the seeds of the next boom. The options deals, which brokers said bear the hallmarks of trades made by hedge funds, appear to be based on the belief that current low prices will generate a supply crunch. Over the last month, investors have bought call options for late 2018, 2019 and 2020 at strike prices of US$80, US$100 and US$110 a barrel. Previously, some investors had already built super-bullish positions. The options deals suggest a concern about shortages as demand begins to outstrip production – the traditional boom and bust commodities cycle.

India’s Fuel Markets A Lucrative Prize For Oil Majors

lweb.es/f1099 7.20.16

iconOEF REVIEW:India’s fuel markets could be a lucrative prize for the world’s oil majors as they seek outlets for their gasoline and diesel. India posted the fastest oil demand growth in the world in the first quarter of 2016 and is replacing China as the driver of growth globally, the International Energy Agency said in its latest report. Fuel marketing in India has turned profitable after the government ended decades-old control over the retail prices of gasoline and diesel, and local private oil refiners Reliance Industries and Essar Oil have started opening their mothballed fuel stations, adding new ones to expand business. India recently offered Saudi Aramco a stake in refineries and petrochemical projects; Total and Royal Dutch Shell are also keen to strengthen their presence in the fuel retailing business; BP could market jet fuel in the country; and Rosneft may take up a 49% stake in Essar Oil’s in a 49% 400,000 barrels per day Vadinar refinery in western Gujarat state.

Copper, nickel prices retreat on weak Chinese export data: Markets swoon as Chinese exports seen at their worst levels since 2009

lweb.es/f871 3.16.16

iconOEF REVIEW:Traders were quick to hit their sell buttons as official figures released in Beijing today showed exports in February were down a whopping 25.4 percent from the previous year – equal to the worst performance since May 2009, when the world was in the grips of a global recession. Imports were down by 13.8 percent, the 16th consecutive decline.

Reaction mixed to four producers’ oil freeze agreement

lweb.es/f836

iconOEF REVIEW:Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, called the agreement by the four producers “simply the beginning of a process to assess in the next few months and decide whether we need other steps to stabilize and improve the market.” Analysts noted, however, that the agreement still needs the cooperation of Iran and Iraq.

High inventories help push crude oil prices to lowest levels in 13 years

lweb.es/f806

iconOEF REVIEW:Several factors have played a part in pushing U.S. crude oil prices below $30 per barrel, including high inventory levels of crude oil, uncertainty about global economic growth, volatility in equity and non-energy commodity markets, and the potential for additional crude oil supply to enter the market. Crude oil and petroleum product inventories, both domestically and internationally, have been growing since mid-2014 and are above five-year averages for this date.