Poland’s state-owned gas company, PGNiG, is currently in preliminary talks with US companies to grab equity stakes in LNG export facilities, so paving the way to the company securing US LNG supplies.
A significant, years-long oil supply crunch may be approaching due to insufficient investment in exploration and production, Hess CEO John Hess said at the IHS CERAWeek, and this will begin showing up in declining offshore supply. He added that “The shale business is back in business and starting to grow again,” but such growth in US shale would not be enough to meet global oil demand, which the International Energy Agency has projected to grow between 1.4-1.6 million barrels a day over this year and the next.
OEF REVIEW:Oil investors are buying contracts that will only pay out if crude oil rises well above US$100 a barrel over the next four years – a clear sign some believe today’s bust is sowing the seeds of the next boom. The options deals, which brokers said bear the hallmarks of trades made by hedge funds, appear to be based on the belief that current low prices will generate a supply crunch. Over the last month, investors have bought call options for late 2018, 2019 and 2020 at strike prices of US$80, US$100 and US$110 a barrel. Previously, some investors had already built super-bullish positions. The options deals suggest a concern about shortages as demand begins to outstrip production – the traditional boom and bust commodities cycle.
OEF REVIEW:Ship tracking data, sourced from Bloomberg, shows that 83 supertankers carrying around 166 million barrels of oil are headed to China, which has stockpiled an impressive 787,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2016 – the highest Chinese oil stockpiling rate since 2014. Additionally, in January 2015 it was reported that China’s strategic petroleum reserve would be increased from 30 days to 90 days. Later in January 2016, it was revealed that China was building underground oil storage facilities to complement its above-ground storage tanks. So it could be considered in the light of this that in contrast to Saudi Arabia, which is a swing producer, China is acting like a swing consumer. Such increased demand from China has helped in lapping up excess oil production, and if If its imports drop, according to Oil Price, the world will return to the oil supply glut and oil prices will retrace back to the lower $30 a barrel.
OEF REVIEW:The new magic number in the oil industry is $50. BP Plc, rig-owner Nabors Industries Ltd. and explorer Pioneer Natural Resources Co. all said in the past 24 hours that prices above $50 will encourage more drilling or provide the needed boost to cash flow. With oil bouncing close to $45 a barrel, an industry that has been shaving costs to stay competitive is ready for signs of stability at a price level less than half of 2014’s average. At an average price of $53 per barrel of oil means the world’s 50 biggest publicly traded companies in the industry can stop bleeding cash, according to oilfield consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Nabors, which owns the world’s largest fleet of onshore drilling rigs, said it has already been talking with several large customers about plans to boost work in the second half of the year if prices rise “comfortably” above $50. “It’s not just about touching $50,” Fraser McKay, vice president of corporate analysis at Wood Mackenzie in Houston, said Tuesday in a phone interview. “It’s about touching, maintaining and having the perception of future prices above $50 a barrel before you start sanctioning projects that are economic at $50 a barrel.”
OEF REVIEW:Barclays has revised downwards its global exploration and production spending outlook for 2016, now saying such spending could fall 27% this year, down from 15% back in January. Spending in North America is now trending down 40% versus 27% in January, and international spending is down 21% year-over-year. Since the Barclays Upstream Spending Survey published in January, operators representing 71% of total spending have revised budgets to reflect reduced 2016 spending plans amid a sustained lower oil-price outlook.
OEF REVIEW:Iraq was the second-leading contributor to the growth in global oil supply in 2015, behind only the United States. Crude oil production in Iraq, including fields in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq, averaged 4.0 million barrels per day in 2015, almost 700,000 barrels per day above the 2014 level. Iraq is the second-largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and accounted for about 75% of total OPEC production growth in 2015.
OEF REVIEW:Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro moved to increase the military’s involvement in the country’s oil and mining industries with the creation of a new state company that will report to the Defense Ministry. The military company, “Camimpeg”, was authorized to participate in a range of oil services and mining activities including the maintenance of wells and drilling rigs, transport and the commercialization of chemicals.
OEF REVIEW:OPEC oil production has jumped to its highest in recent history in January as Iran increased sales following the lifting of sanctions and its rivals Saudi Arabia and Iraq also boosted supply, a Reuters survey showed on Friday. Rising output in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries further aggravates the market share battle between top global producers. In the past year this has flooded the market with new barrels, creating one of the worst oil gluts in history and helping send prices to a 12-year low.
OEF REVIEW:Though Syria itself is mostly irrelevant as a trading partner for China, the region’s stability is nevertheless one of Beijing’s core concerns, not only because Iraq is among its main oil suppliers. Beijing’s $900 billion Silk Road initiative aims to connect Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe through a wide-ranging infrastructure network. But ongoing fighting and terror attacks are putting this mega-project at risk.
