India’s Fuel Markets A Lucrative Prize For Oil Majors lweb.es/f1099 7.20.16
OEF REVIEW:India’s fuel markets could be a lucrative prize for the world’s oil majors as they seek outlets for their gasoline and diesel. India posted the fastest oil demand growth in the world in the first quarter of 2016 and is replacing China as the driver of growth globally, the International Energy Agency said in its latest report. Fuel marketing in India has turned profitable after the government ended decades-old control over the retail prices of gasoline and diesel, and local private oil refiners Reliance Industries and Essar Oil have started opening their mothballed fuel stations, adding new ones to expand business. India recently offered Saudi Aramco a stake in refineries and petrochemical projects; Total and Royal Dutch Shell are also keen to strengthen their presence in the fuel retailing business; BP could market jet fuel in the country; and Rosneft may take up a 49% stake in Essar Oil’s in a 49% 400,000 barrels per day Vadinar refinery in western Gujarat state.
OEF REVIEW:Technical analyst Clive P. Maund lists the reasons he believes oil prices, which recently peaked above $50 a barrel, are headed for a fall: “It still looks like oil is topping out here at about the $50 level after its substantial recovery uptrend from its February low. While we cannot be sure until it breaks down from its uptrend, the chances of its doing so soon look high for various reasons.”
OEF REVIEW:The new magic number in the oil industry is $50. BP Plc, rig-owner Nabors Industries Ltd. and explorer Pioneer Natural Resources Co. all said in the past 24 hours that prices above $50 will encourage more drilling or provide the needed boost to cash flow. With oil bouncing close to $45 a barrel, an industry that has been shaving costs to stay competitive is ready for signs of stability at a price level less than half of 2014’s average. At an average price of $53 per barrel of oil means the world’s 50 biggest publicly traded companies in the industry can stop bleeding cash, according to oilfield consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Nabors, which owns the world’s largest fleet of onshore drilling rigs, said it has already been talking with several large customers about plans to boost work in the second half of the year if prices rise “comfortably” above $50. “It’s not just about touching $50,” Fraser McKay, vice president of corporate analysis at Wood Mackenzie in Houston, said Tuesday in a phone interview. “It’s about touching, maintaining and having the perception of future prices above $50 a barrel before you start sanctioning projects that are economic at $50 a barrel.” 
OEF REVIEW:Oil prices have climbed by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase.
OEF REVIEW:This IHS Global Inc. report assesses capital and operating costs associated with drilling, completing, and operating wells and facilities. The report focuses on five onshore regions, including the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Marcellus plays, two plays (Midland and Delaware) within the Permian basin, as well as the offshore federal Gulf of Mexico. The period studied runs from 2006 through 2015, with forecasts to 2018…
OEF REVIEW:Traders were quick to hit their sell buttons as official figures released in Beijing today showed exports in February were down a whopping 25.4 percent from the previous year – equal to the worst performance since May 2009, when the world was in the grips of a global recession. Imports were down by 13.8 percent, the 16th consecutive decline.
OEF REVIEW:Saudi Arabia and Russia have taken the first step to stem the slide in oil prices. There’s just one problem: If they are successful — and that’s a big if — the wildcatters of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota are waiting to pounce. With 4,000 wells drilled and just waiting for better prices to be brought on stream, the so-called fracklog could act as a cap to any oil rally, industry executives, traders and OPEC officials said. Worse, a price recovery could effectively bail out dozens of shale companies now struggling with $30-a-barrel oil, allowing them to return to the capital market.
OEF REVIEW:Mexico President Enrique Peña Nieto said his nation’s energy reform stemmed from an intense, collective effort early in his administration. Mexico’s energy reform legislation was passed in 2014 and will continue to be implemented on a timely basis. “With this reform, the Mexican state retains ownership of the underground hydrocarbons,” and opens up the hydrocarbon value chain to outside investors, Peña Nieto said. “It is being implemented with success and faster than expected.”
OEF REVIEW:“In this post we first confirm the positive correlation between stocks and oil prices, noting that it is not just a recent phenomenon. We then investigate the hypothesis that underlying changes in aggregate demand explain the oil-stocks relationship. We find that an underlying demand factor does account for much of the positive relationship, and that if, in addition, we account for shifts in market risk preferences, we can explain still more. However, even with these two factors included, a significant part of the oil-stocks correlation remains unexplained.”
OEF REVIEW:The Nikkei spoke with Takashi Tsukioka, CEO at Idemitsu Kosan, a major Japanese oil refiner, about the future direction of crude prices, the outlook for shale oil players and industry realignments in Japan.
OEF REVIEW:Ministers from Saudi Arabia and Russia met in Doha along with their counterparts from Venezuela and Qatar. Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Naimi said: “Freezing now at the January level is adequate for the market. We don’t want significant gyrations in prices, we want to meet demand. We want a stable oil price.”
OEF REVIEW:The world’s two most powerful oil producers have reached a tentative agreement to freeze oil production at its current levels, dashing hopes of a supply cut for the world’s glutted market. Meeting in Doha, Russian, Venezuelan, Qatari and Saudi Arabian oil ministers reached a deal to not exceed production from their January levels, but only if it was followed suit by other producers such as Iran and Iraq. Forward prices for Bent crude plunged by as much as 3 percent on the news to $33.68 a barrel, reversing days of gains.
OEF REVIEW:The February 2016 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report indicates the following, on page 17, with regard to “Recent Interactions Between the Oil Market and the Global Economy”: It seems that the overall negative effect from the sharp decline in oil prices since mid-2014 has outweighed benefits in the short-term and there seems to be a ‘contagious’ effect taking place across many aspects of the global economy…more