OEF REVIEW:China’s oil demand will grow 4.3% this year to surpass 11 million barrels per day, compared to 4.8% growth last year, the country’s top energy group forecast on Tuesday. State-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) sees the country’s oil demand rising to 566 million tonnes, or 11.32 million barrels per day in 2016, some 460,000 barrels per day higher than last year.
OEF REVIEW:As oil prices continue to decline, North American exploration and production companies have hedged just 15 percent of their total production volumes for 2016, including 14 percent of oil and 18 percent of natural gas, leaving the companies largely exposed to current depressed market prices, according to new analysis from IHS (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight.
OEF REVIEW:OPEC oil production has jumped to its highest in recent history in January as Iran increased sales following the lifting of sanctions and its rivals Saudi Arabia and Iraq also boosted supply, a Reuters survey showed on Friday. Rising output in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries further aggravates the market share battle between top global producers. In the past year this has flooded the market with new barrels, creating one of the worst oil gluts in history and helping send prices to a 12-year low.
OEF REVIEW:Though Syria itself is mostly irrelevant as a trading partner for China, the region’s stability is nevertheless one of Beijing’s core concerns, not only because Iraq is among its main oil suppliers. Beijing’s $900 billion Silk Road initiative aims to connect Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe through a wide-ranging infrastructure network. But ongoing fighting and terror attacks are putting this mega-project at risk.
OEF REVIEW:Given the current circumstances, the impact of China on global markets should not be underestimated. As the world’s largest oil importer, China is one of the countries that benefits the most from low oil prices. The decline in oil prices is generally good for China. But wild swings in oil prices, and a possible price rise in the future, could have a big negative impact on the country’s economy. One of the strategies to offset the impact of wild fluctuations in oil prices is to increase the country’s oil reserves.
OEF REVIEW:With oil-directed rigs representing two thirds of the decline, the US drilling rig count fell 18 units to 619 during the week ended Jan. 29, the latest Baker Hughes Inc. data show (OGJ Online, Jan. 22, 2016). The overall count is down 924 year-over-year and the lowest since Aug. 6, 1999. Martin Craighead, BHI chairman and chief executive officer, forecasted more pain in 2016 for the worldwide drilling industry“. At current commodity prices, the global rig count could decline as much as 30% in 2016, as our customers’ challenges of maximizing production, lowering their overall costs, and protecting cash flows are now more acute,” he said.
OEF REVIEW:These are the key findings of this report on Canadian oil and energy: 1. Recent developments have highlighted numerous uncertainties for Canada’s long-term energy outlook. 2. In the Reference Case, energy production grows faster than energy use and net exports of energy increase. 3. The levels of future oil and natural gas production are highly dependent on future prices, which are subject to considerable uncertainty. 4. Without development of additional oil pipeline infrastructure, crude oil production grows less quickly but continues to grow at a moderate pace over the projection period. 5. The volume of liquefied natural gas exports is an important driver of Canadian natural gas production growth. 6. Total energy use in Canada, which includes energy use in the energy production sector, grows at similar rates in all Energy Future 2016 cases, and Greenhouse Gas emissions related to that energy use will follow similar tren
OEF REVIEW:Global energy demand will increase 25 percent between 2014 and 2040, driven by population growth and economic expansion, ExxonMobil said today in the 2016 edition of The Outlook for Energy. At the same time, energy efficiency gains and increased use of renewable energy sources and lower carbon fuels, such as natural gas, are expected to help reduce by half the carbon intensity of the global economy.
OEF REVIEW:Question: BP moved very quickly to say it thought that the oil price would stay low for a long time. What factors fed into that statement? Answer: If you consider the two most recent big drops – 2008/2009 and 1998 – both of those were driven by economic recessions. So, we saw big falls in demand. Those tend to correct themselves relatively quickly. In contrast, the price weakness this time was caused by strong growth in supply, initially as a result of very strong growth in US shale. Normally, world demand for oil grows by about 0.8 million barrels a day per year, but at the end of last year US shale, on its own, grew by 1.6 million barrels a day. Last year, we saw a combination of supply increments from Iraq and Saudi Arabia that added a further 1.5 million barrels a day. What we know from history is that the oil market takes an awful lot longer to adjust to supply shocks than it does to cyclical demand shocks.
OEF REVIEW:Saudi Arabia outlined ambitious plans on Monday to move into industries ranging from information technology to health care and tourism, as it sought to convince international investors it can cope with an era of cheap oil. A meeting and presentation at a luxury Riyadh hotel was held against a backdrop of low oil prices pressuring the kingdom’s currency and saddling it with an annual state budget deficit of almost $100 billion.
OEF REVIEW:A change to the North Sea Brent crude oil futures contract will alter the way prices for Brent futures are compared to futures prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. Beginning January 29, the Brent contract will expire, or rollover to the next month, approximately two to three weeks before expiration of the WTI contract for delivery in the same month. Prior to the change, the Brent contract rollover was only five to seven days ahead of the WTI rollover.
OEF REVIEW:The Great Green Fleet is a Department of the Navy initiative highlighting how the Navy and Marine Corps are using energy efficiency and alternative energy to increase combat capability and operational flexibility. At the close of the ceremony, the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Stockdale (DDG 106) left the pier to begin its deployment, becoming the first U.S. Navy ship running on an alternative fuel blend as part of its regular operations.
OEF REVIEW:“There is excess supply out there,” the CEO of BP told reporters on Thursday at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort. “These are very sharp shocks for countries and the industry. The first mantra of the oil crisis was “lower for longer.” Then “lower for even longer.” Now in Davos, executives are starting to talk—or rather, whisper—about a new nightmare scenario: “A lot lower for a lot longer.”
OEF REVIEW:The Company’s net production target for 2016 is in the range of 470-485 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), of which approximately 66% and 34% are produced in China and overseas respectively. The net production targets set for 2017 and 2018 are around 484 and 502 million BOE respectively. The estimated net production for 2015 was approximately 495 million BOE.
OEF REVIEW:With oil prices touching their lowest level since 2003, Dmitry Zhdannikov writes that OPEC officials and deal brokers are looking back nearly two decades and asking whether a behind-the-scenes deal to curb oil output between OPEC and non-OPEC Russia could be struck. He suggests that a paper by Robert Mabro, founder of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies who helped to broker the 1998 oil deal, could could throw light on the current problem. Mabro wrote at the time: “Changes in policy are always possible, even likely, when significant revenue losses are at stake”.
OEF REVIEW:With oil prices touching their lowest level since 2003, Dmitry Zhdannikov writes that OPEC officials and deal brokers are looking back nearly two decades and asking whether a behind-the-scenes deal to curb oil output between OPEC and non-OPEC Russia could be struck. He suggests that a paper by Robert Mabro, founder of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies who helped to broker the 1998 oil deal, could could throw light on the current problem. Mabro wrote at the time: “Changes in policy are always possible, even likely, when significant revenue losses are at stake”.
OEF REVIEW:“Hydraulic fracturing remains a highly contentious public policy issue because of concerns about the environmental and health effects of its use. This Critical Issue Paper is written as a primer for the general public, journalists, and even resource professionals who may have difficulty finding objective, credible information about hydraulic fracturing of shales and other unconventional sources and related environmental concerns.
OEF REVIEW:“Hydraulic fracturing remains a highly contentious public policy issue because of concerns about the environmental and health effects of its use. This Critical Issue Paper is written as a primer for the general public, journalists, and even resource professionals who may have difficulty finding objective, credible information about hydraulic fracturing of shales and other unconventional sources and related environmental concerns.
OEF REVIEW:“The energy markets are tanking and are at levels that have not been seen since “The Recession” of 2009. Opinions are divided on the effects of the fall. Some say it is good for consumers, whereas, others say it is bad for the global economy. This article will analyze the overall effects of low crude oil prices on the industry, the major oil-producing nations, consumers and the overall global economy.
OEF REVIEW:Oil prices crashed 6 percent on Friday to close below $30 a barrel for the first time in 12 years, resuming this year’s breathtaking rout as Chinese stock markets fell further and traders braced for an imminent rise in Iran’s exports.
