The OPEC Reference Basket fell to average $45.46 a barrel in August. This was mostly attributed to sell-offs amid enduring oversupply and Chinese economic turbulence. Demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.3 million barrels per day in 2015, up 0.4 million barrels per day from the previous year.
Russia’s Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, expects that cuts in global shale oil production will help stabilize the oil market. He adds that Russia would not cut its own production which is currently standing around 10.7 million barrels per day.
Venezuela started importing light crude last year for the first time in its history. Most of the oil is being used as a diluent to formulate exportable blends.
“Oil’s price collapse is closing down high cost production from Eagle Ford in Texas to Russia and the North Sea, which may result in the loss next year of half a million barrels a day – the biggest decline in 24 years.”
China imported 6.26 million barrels a day of crude in August – up 5.6% from the same month last year, but a 13.4$ drop from July this year. Almost half this growth has either gone into storage or been exported as fuels, it appears. Gasoline demand rose 17% over the first seven months of this year compared to the same period last year, but diesel consumption is weak.
Iranian oil minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has said that most OPEC members would like to see crude prices at $70 to $80 a barrel. He considered that this price would be “fair” and added that Iran would boost output at any cost: “It’s our right to return to the level of production we historically had”.
Research and analysis company Statistics Norway expects oil prices “to remain low going forward”, before increasing to around $60 in 2018. The company aded that they expected the slump in Norway’s oil and gas sector to level off from 2016.
How resilient is Saudi Arabia to a projected deficit of 14-20% of GDP owing to the drop in oil prices? Saudi officials have a wider range of policy instruments in their toolkit than is sometimes perceived in the international media.
The North Sea and Nigeria will ship the most crude in more than three years in October, adding to downward pressure on oil prices. Output of North Sea grades will reach the highest since May 2012 in October, and supplies from Nigeria are set to reach a level not seen since August of the same year.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has said that the price of oil should be a minimum of $70 a barrel in order for the necessary oil investments to be made. He added: “If that’s not the case, take note, investments will fall, and stocks will not be replaced by investment, and in one year we will have a price of $200”.
When the oil price halved last year the cause was obvious: Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase its share of the global oil market by expanding production. But what accounts for the further plunge in oil prices in the last few weeks to lows last seen in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, and how will it affect the world economy?
In the first half of 2015 Saudi Arabia exported more than half its crude exports to Asia. The Kingdom increased production and kept its export levels high enabling it to maintain its market share in the countries in question. However, long-term trends in Saudi Arabia’s domestic energy sector and competition from other oil exporting nations may result in a decline in the Kingdom’s global crude oil market share.
Average crude prices: Brent $47/b in August 2015, a 10% decrease from July; Crude oil forecasts: Brent $54/b in 2015 and $59/b in 2016, and WTI prices to average approximately $5/b below Brent. U.S. oil production fell 140,000 b/d in August when compared to July, and expected to decline through mid-2016. Natural gas working inventories 18% higher than a year ago.
The United States is moving away from the necessity to import large volumes of natural gas for its domestic requirements. Over the last few years it has become possible to produce vast amounts of shale gas that was previously uneconomic to extract. Between 2007 and 2012, shale gas production in the U.S. rose from 1.3…
The following table is a combination of the information provided by the study “An Assessment of 137 Shale Formations in 41 Countries outside the United States”, June 2013, produced by the Energy Information Administration and Advanced Resources International, Inc (EIA-ARI), and the “British Petroleum Statistical Review of World Energy, 2013”. In order to make the…
Algeria Algeria’s hydrocarbons basins hold two significant shale gas and shale oil formations: the Silurian Tannezuft Shale and the Devonian Frasnian Shale. The Energy Information Administration, Advanced Resources International, Inc (EIA-ARI) report World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resource Assessment, June 2013, which analyses the Ghadames (Berkine) and Illizi Basins in eastern Algeria, the Timimoun,…
Russia and China will lead the way in the production of resources from shale after the US according to executives at the Financial Times Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, as reported in April by Rigzone. Torbjorn Tomqvist, chief executive of trading house Gunvor said (…) it was clear that shale production on a similar…
A General View Starting From The U.S.A. Are other countries going to have the same experience with regard to shale oil and gas as the United States has had recently? What about China, Russia, and Europe, and the other parts of the world? Shale’s potential can be appreciated by a brief examination of the…
