Bob Dudley, chief executive of BP, has said that there is a limit to how big a role U.S. shale can play in the global oil market, adding that traditional producers such as Saudi Arabia would continue to exert more influence over crude prices.
OEF REVIEW:The 2016 edition of the BP Energy Outlook outlines the ‘most likely’ path for energy demand by fuel based on assumptions and judgements about future changes in policy, technology and the economy, and develops a number of alternative cases to explore key uncertainties.
OEF REVIEW:Question: BP moved very quickly to say it thought that the oil price would stay low for a long time. What factors fed into that statement? Answer: If you consider the two most recent big drops – 2008/2009 and 1998 – both of those were driven by economic recessions. So, we saw big falls in demand. Those tend to correct themselves relatively quickly. In contrast, the price weakness this time was caused by strong growth in supply, initially as a result of very strong growth in US shale. Normally, world demand for oil grows by about 0.8 million barrels a day per year, but at the end of last year US shale, on its own, grew by 1.6 million barrels a day. Last year, we saw a combination of supply increments from Iraq and Saudi Arabia that added a further 1.5 million barrels a day. What we know from history is that the oil market takes an awful lot longer to adjust to supply shocks than it does to cyclical demand shocks.
OEF REVIEW:“There is excess supply out there,” the CEO of BP told reporters on Thursday at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort. “These are very sharp shocks for countries and the industry. The first mantra of the oil crisis was “lower for longer.” Then “lower for even longer.” Now in Davos, executives are starting to talk—or rather, whisper—about a new nightmare scenario: “A lot lower for a lot longer.”
