$50 Oil Won’t Last: High Chance Of Breakdown lweb.es/f1097 7.20.16
OEF REVIEW:Technical analyst Clive P. Maund lists the reasons he believes oil prices, which recently peaked above $50 a barrel, are headed for a fall: “It still looks like oil is topping out here at about the $50 level after its substantial recovery uptrend from its February low. While we cannot be sure until it breaks down from its uptrend, the chances of its doing so soon look high for various reasons.”
OEF REVIEW:The AIIB and NDB are both headquartered in China and there is a strong relationship between these two institutions. Within the infrastructure space, there is such a huge funding gap that all of these institutions can work together. All of us contribute to filling that funding gap. What sets the AIIB and NDB apart is that we are focused on the five BRICS countries, while the AIIB is focused on Asia, so we have a geographical difference. But for big regional projects in Asia, we very much welcome the opportunity to partner with the AIIB to co-finance some projects. Rather than setting up a rival institution, we consider the NDB as being complementary to the existing financial architecture…
OEF REVIEW:Traders were quick to hit their sell buttons as official figures released in Beijing today showed exports in February were down a whopping 25.4 percent from the previous year – equal to the worst performance since May 2009, when the world was in the grips of a global recession. Imports were down by 13.8 percent, the 16th consecutive decline.
OEF REVIEW:“2016 State of American Energy report details the economic, job creation, energy security and global leadership opportunities created by our nation’s 21st century energy revolution and the policy challenges we must overcome to ensure that these benefits extend for generations to come. To give a sense of the reach and scope of the industry, each chapter of this report examines the distinctive policy challenges and opportunities through highlights of these issues in seven regions that include all 50 states. The report makes clear that the economic benefits and opportunities provided by the oil and natural gas industry aren’t confined to energy producing states and that the industry could do more with the right energy policies based on market principles and sound science.” Jack N. Gerard, President and CEO, API
OEF REVIEW:Global energy demand will increase 25 percent between 2014 and 2040, driven by population growth and economic expansion, ExxonMobil said today in the 2016 edition of The Outlook for Energy. At the same time, energy efficiency gains and increased use of renewable energy sources and lower carbon fuels, such as natural gas, are expected to help reduce by half the carbon intensity of the global economy.
OEF REVIEW:Question: BP moved very quickly to say it thought that the oil price would stay low for a long time. What factors fed into that statement? Answer: If you consider the two most recent big drops – 2008/2009 and 1998 – both of those were driven by economic recessions. So, we saw big falls in demand. Those tend to correct themselves relatively quickly. In contrast, the price weakness this time was caused by strong growth in supply, initially as a result of very strong growth in US shale. Normally, world demand for oil grows by about 0.8 million barrels a day per year, but at the end of last year US shale, on its own, grew by 1.6 million barrels a day. Last year, we saw a combination of supply increments from Iraq and Saudi Arabia that added a further 1.5 million barrels a day. What we know from history is that the oil market takes an awful lot longer to adjust to supply shocks than it does to cyclical demand shocks.
OEF REVIEW:With the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index down more than 40% since last June, investors worldwide are watching the decline with growing concern – but not because they are invested in the plummeting market (China’s stocks are overwhelmingly held by Chinese). Rather, the fear is that plunging equity prices mean that China’s economy is going down the tubes. But those seeking compelling clues about China’s economic future should look elsewhere.
OEF REVIEW:Venezuela depends on oil for about 96% of hard currency revenues. The average price for its basket of oil and refined products fell this week to US$24.38, its lowest in more than 12 years
OEF REVIEW: China’s president Xi Jinping has made major pledges in foreign aid, and Africa will foreseeably benefit greatly from the new packages. Even though developing countries and the development community have welcomed the aid pledges there has been harsh criticism of them from within Chinese society.
OEF REVIEW:“Moody’s defines China’s rebalancing challenge as the need to engineer economic restructuring, policy reform, market liberalization and slower credit uptake with the aim of shifting economic growth drivers away state-led investment – all without sacrificing short-term macroeconomic stability.” “As the authorities are — we believe — prioritizing stability in the current environment, the likelihood of a slowdown in policy reform is increasing,” says Rahul Ghosh, a Moody’s Vice President and Senior Research Analyst. 
OEF REVIEW:This Energy Information Administration (EIA) presentation for the October 2015 Oil and Money Conference covers the following questions: 1) What are the key cyclical and structural factors driving oil demand? 2) How is demand changing in developing countries? 3) To what extent will a prolonged period of low prices result in a return to higher demand growth? and 4) How is the landscape of oil trading changing with the decreasing presence of key financial institutions? Note for the article: CAFE = Corporate Average Fuel Economy.
OEF REVIEW: According to the Global Times, China, the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement will not isolate China or seriously hurt the Chinese economy. Some Chinese experts explain in this article that it could be beneficial for the growth and development of the country.
OEF REVIEW: President Putin talks with Charlie Rose about: the Islamic State and Syria; his relations with President Obama; how Russia and the U.S. cooperate for a better world; about his popularity in Russia; his views on the U.S.; Ukraine and the Minsk agreements; the disintegration of the USSR; the Baltic States; and what he sees as his legacy.
Second-quarter 2015 financial statements from U.S. companies with onshore oil operations suggest continued financial strain for some companies. Some have turned to capital markets financing and have also reduced capital expenditures.