OEF REVIEW:The 2016 edition of the BP Energy Outlook outlines the ‘most likely’ path for energy demand by fuel based on assumptions and judgements about future changes in policy, technology and the economy, and develops a number of alternative cases to explore key uncertainties.
OEF REVIEW:While Venezuela’s new legislative majority faces many immediate concerns with the Nicolas Maduro regime following a Dec. 6 election, it also should begin to disband and replace Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), a former board member of the national oil company said. “I believe PDVSA is impossible to upgrade,” said Gustavo Coronel, a petroleum geologist and consultant on energy geopolitics and public policy who was a member of the Venezuelan Congress before then-President Hugo Chavez dissolved it. “It should be replaced by another model of oil industry management in Venezuela.”
OEF REVIEW:The February 2016 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report indicates the following, on page 17, with regard to “Recent Interactions Between the Oil Market and the Global Economy”: It seems that the overall negative effect from the sharp decline in oil prices since mid-2014 has outweighed benefits in the short-term and there seems to be a ‘contagious’ effect taking place across many aspects of the global economy…more
OEF REVIEW:The head of Russian state-run oil company Rosneft on Wednesday floated the idea of a coordinated output cut by major oil-producing countries to prop up sagging prices but fell short of saying whether Moscow would contribute to such a plan. Rosneft Chief Executive Igor Sechin, in a speech at the International Petroleum Week conference in London, attributed oversupply in the market to overproduction by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. He suggested major oil producers each cut production by 1 million barrels per day.
OEF REVIEW:A handful of shale patches in the state, which would be the world’s sixth-largest oil producer if it were a country, are profitable with crude below $30 a barrel, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence. In the Eagle Ford’s DeWitt County, which produced more than 100,000 barrels of oil per day in November, the average well can be profitable with U.S. benchmark crude at $22.52 a barrel, $4 below the lowest level this year. Drive 200 miles southwest to Dimmit County, and drillers need $58 oil. The wide range of break-evens illustrates one reason why shale production from exploration and production companies has been more resilient than expected, filling storage tanks in the U.S. to levels not seen in 85 years.
OEF REVIEW:Several factors have played a part in pushing U.S. crude oil prices below $30 per barrel, including high inventory levels of crude oil, uncertainty about global economic growth, volatility in equity and non-energy commodity markets, and the potential for additional crude oil supply to enter the market. Crude oil and petroleum product inventories, both domestically and internationally, have been growing since mid-2014 and are above five-year averages for this date.
OEF REVIEW:The impact of sharply lower oil prices is being felt around the globe. Oil-dependent countries are trying to mend busted budgets. Oil companies are cutting production and workers. While consumers in some countries enjoy lower gas prices, elsewhere consumers are paying higher food prices due to declines in the local currency. This article gives some facts and figures from the USA, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Europe/Russia, Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
OEF REVIEW:“It’s hard to see a dramatic price increase,” Vitol Group BV Chief Executive Officer Ian Taylor told Bloomberg in an interview, saying prices were likely to bounce around a band with a midpoint of $50 a barrel for the next decade. “We really do imagine a band,” probably between $40 and $60 a barrel, he said. “I can see that band lasting for five to ten years. I think it’s fundamentally different.”
OEF REVIEW:China’s oil demand will grow 4.3% this year to surpass 11 million barrels per day, compared to 4.8% growth last year, the country’s top energy group forecast on Tuesday. State-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) sees the country’s oil demand rising to 566 million tonnes, or 11.32 million barrels per day in 2016, some 460,000 barrels per day higher than last year.
OEF REVIEW:As oil prices continue to decline, North American exploration and production companies have hedged just 15 percent of their total production volumes for 2016, including 14 percent of oil and 18 percent of natural gas, leaving the companies largely exposed to current depressed market prices, according to new analysis from IHS (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight.
OEF REVIEW:OPEC oil production has jumped to its highest in recent history in January as Iran increased sales following the lifting of sanctions and its rivals Saudi Arabia and Iraq also boosted supply, a Reuters survey showed on Friday. Rising output in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries further aggravates the market share battle between top global producers. In the past year this has flooded the market with new barrels, creating one of the worst oil gluts in history and helping send prices to a 12-year low.
OEF REVIEW:Though Syria itself is mostly irrelevant as a trading partner for China, the region’s stability is nevertheless one of Beijing’s core concerns, not only because Iraq is among its main oil suppliers. Beijing’s $900 billion Silk Road initiative aims to connect Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe through a wide-ranging infrastructure network. But ongoing fighting and terror attacks are putting this mega-project at risk.
