Rigs: Longest Oilfield Expansion Since 2014

lweb.es/f1387 9.08.2016

iconOEF REVIEW: Mid-August saw the longest period of rig expansion since the final days of the drilling boom in early 2014, according to World Oil, marking the longest period of oilfield expansion since April of that year when drillers added oil rigs nine weeks in a row, reported Baker Hughes Inc. Prompted by an oil price recovery from a 12-year low in February, producers have begun returning parked rigs to service after idling more than 1,000 rigs since the start of last year. The long-term decline in drilling expansion has led to a slowdown in production. Crude output fell by 15,000 barrels per day to 8.45 million barrels per day during the week ended August 5th. “I think it’s just a matter of time before we come into balance,” Paul Crovo, a Philadelphia-based oil and equity analyst at PNC Capital Advisors said. “We think the fundamentals will take care of themselves as we come into the third quarter and later into the fourth quarter and early 2017.”

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World Tight Oil Production Output To Double By 2040

lweb.es/f1385 9.08.2016

iconOEF REVIEW:According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) world tight oil production is expected to more than double between 2015 and 2040, increasing from 4.98 million barrels per day in 2015 to 10.36 million barrels per day in 2040. Most of the projected increase will come from the United States, with much of the rest coming from countries such as Russia, Canada, and Argentina. U.S. tight oil production is expected to reach 7.1 million barrels per day in 2040. Tight oil production in Canada will continue to decline until 2020, and then increase over the rest of the projection period, reaching 0.76 million barrels per day in 2040. Argentina is still in the early stages of commercial tight oil production, but projections are that production will double from 2015 to 2020 and will reach 0.69 million b/d in 2040. Russia, Mexico, Colombia, Australia, and other countries that hold large technically recoverable tight oil resources are expected to contribute 18% of the projected total world tight oil production by 2040.

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Oil At US$100? Hedge Funds Bet On Supply Crunch

lweb.es/f1101 7.20.16

iconOEF REVIEW:Oil investors are buying contracts that will only pay out if crude oil rises well above US$100 a barrel over the next four years – a clear sign some believe today’s bust is sowing the seeds of the next boom. The options deals, which brokers said bear the hallmarks of trades made by hedge funds, appear to be based on the belief that current low prices will generate a supply crunch. Over the last month, investors have bought call options for late 2018, 2019 and 2020 at strike prices of US$80, US$100 and US$110 a barrel. Previously, some investors had already built super-bullish positions. The options deals suggest a concern about shortages as demand begins to outstrip production – the traditional boom and bust commodities cycle.

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India’s Fuel Markets A Lucrative Prize For Oil Majors

lweb.es/f1099 7.20.16

iconOEF REVIEW:India’s fuel markets could be a lucrative prize for the world’s oil majors as they seek outlets for their gasoline and diesel. India posted the fastest oil demand growth in the world in the first quarter of 2016 and is replacing China as the driver of growth globally, the International Energy Agency said in its latest report. Fuel marketing in India has turned profitable after the government ended decades-old control over the retail prices of gasoline and diesel, and local private oil refiners Reliance Industries and Essar Oil have started opening their mothballed fuel stations, adding new ones to expand business. India recently offered Saudi Aramco a stake in refineries and petrochemical projects; Total and Royal Dutch Shell are also keen to strengthen their presence in the fuel retailing business; BP could market jet fuel in the country; and Rosneft may take up a 49% stake in Essar Oil’s in a 49% 400,000 barrels per day Vadinar refinery in western Gujarat state.

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$50 Oil Won’t Last: High Chance Of Breakdown

lweb.es/f1097 7.20.16

iconOEF REVIEW:Technical analyst Clive P. Maund lists the reasons he believes oil prices, which recently peaked above $50 a barrel, are headed for a fall: “It still looks like oil is topping out here at about the $50 level after its substantial recovery uptrend from its February low. While we cannot be sure until it breaks down from its uptrend, the chances of its doing so soon look high for various reasons.”

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China Oil Stockpiling Dictates the Oil Supply Glut

lweb.es/f919 5.24.16

iconOEF REVIEW:Ship tracking data, sourced from Bloomberg, shows that 83 supertankers carrying around 166 million barrels of oil are headed to China, which has stockpiled an impressive 787,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2016 – the highest Chinese oil stockpiling rate since 2014. Additionally, in January 2015 it was reported that China’s strategic petroleum reserve would be increased from 30 days to 90 days. Later in January 2016, it was revealed that China was building underground oil storage facilities to complement its above-ground storage tanks. So it could be considered in the light of this that in contrast to Saudi Arabia, which is a swing producer, China is acting like a swing consumer. Such increased demand from China has helped in lapping up excess oil production, and if If its imports drop, according to Oil Price, the world will return to the oil supply glut and oil prices will retrace back to the lower $30 a barrel.

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China Petrochemical Complex: A First For Mixed-Ownership

lweb.es/f917 5.24.16

iconOEF REVIEW:A Chinese group led by a private company is planning to build a $15 billion petrochemical complex and refinery on an island near Shanghai. This would be the country’s first and largest energy installation to be built by a non-state investor and is one of the first concrete signs of Beijing’s stated desire to experiment with mixed-ownership in its massive state-controlled energy sector. The complex would include a 400,000 barrels per day refinery and a 1.4 million tonnes a year ethylene plant.

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Oil’s ​R​ecovery ​I​nches ​H​igher as ​F​raclog ​A​waits ​P​rice ​T​rigger

lweb.es/f906 4.30.16

Oil’s rebound from the lowest level in more than 12 years may face an abrupt halt as prices near a level that could trigger a wave of new U.S. shale production. Futures in New York have advanced more than 60% since the February low and closed at $43.73 a barrel Friday 22nd March​, the highest in five months, nearing a $45-level IG Ltd. says makes some shale plays profitable. Drilled, uncompleted wells could return 500,000 barrels of oil per day back to the market, according to Richard Westerdale, a director at the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources. The inventory of wells is known as the fraclog.​ ​ “Once we start approaching $45 and above, the risk of a much sharper pullback starts to increase as a lot of shale becomes profitable again,” Angus Nicholson, an analyst at IG in Melbourne, said by phone.

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Oil’s Magic Number Becomes $50 a Barrel for Promise of Recovery

lweb.es/f903 4.30.16

iconOEF REVIEW:The new magic number in the oil industry is $50. BP Plc, rig-owner Nabors Industries Ltd. and explorer Pioneer Natural Resources Co. all said in the past 24 hours that prices above $50 will encourage more drilling or provide the needed boost to cash flow. With oil bouncing close to $45 a barrel, an industry that has been shaving costs to stay competitive is ready for signs of stability at a price level less than half of 2014’s average. At an average price of $53 per barrel of oil means the world’s 50 biggest publicly traded companies in the industry can stop bleeding cash, according to oilfield consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Nabors, which owns the world’s largest fleet of onshore drilling rigs, said it has already been talking with several large customers about plans to boost work in the second half of the year if prices rise “comfortably” above $50. “It’s not just about touching $50,” Fraser McKay, vice president of corporate analysis at Wood Mackenzie in Houston, said Tuesday in a phone interview. “It’s about touching, maintaining and having the perception of future prices above $50 a barrel before you start sanctioning projects that are economic at $50 a barrel.”

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ONGC Plans to Drill 17 Exploration Wells in India’s Shale Oil, Gas Blocks

lweb.es/f901 4.30.16

India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. (ONGC) intends to spend approximately $105 million (INR 7 billion) to drill up to 17 shale oil and gas wells located on the country’s east and west coasts. ONGC is seeking permission to drill 11 exploratory wells for shale oil and shale gas in Cambay basin at Mehsana, Ahmedabad and Bharuch districts of Gujarat, 1 prospect in Cauvery basin at Nagapattinam in Tamil Nadu and five wells in Krishna-Godvari Basin at East and West Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh. If the proposal is approved by the government, it will be the first time that ONGC has embarked on shale exploration on such a large scale.

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China Seen Sustaining Strong Crude Imports

lweb.es/f899 4.27.16

iconOEF REVIEW:China’s crude imports will rise further from a record this year to feed its expanding refining sector and strategic reserves, according to Standard Chartered Bank. The nation’s average crude imports will rise by as much as 600,000 barrels per day this year, analysts including Priya N. Balchandani said in a March 24th report. Imports last month surged above 8 million barrels per day for the first time and exceeded volumes shipped to the U.S., the world’s top oil user, according to the bank. Standard Chartered expects China’s crude imports will top 10 million barrels per day by late 2018 or early 2019.

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