Lower Oil Prices: Zero Stimulus to US Economy lweb.es/f1442 10.2.2016
OEF REVIEW:The Brookings report “Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?” explores the effect on U.S. real GDP growth of the sharp decline in the global price of crude oil and hence in the U.S. price of gasoline after June 2014. This decline produced a stimulus of about 0.7 percentage points of real GDP growth by raising private real consumption and an additional stimulus of 0.04 percentage points reflecting a shrinking petroleum trade deficit. However, the net stimulus since June 2014 has been effectively zero. No evidence of an additional role for frictions in reallocating labor or the price of gasoline in explaining the sluggish response. Neither was there evidence of lower oil costs stimulating other business investment, nor an increase in household savings, nor of households deleveraging.
OEF REVIEW: Mid-August saw the longest period of rig expansion since the final days of the drilling boom in early 2014, according to World Oil, marking the longest period of oilfield expansion since April of that year when drillers added oil rigs nine weeks in a row, reported Baker Hughes Inc. Prompted by an oil price recovery from a 12-year low in February, producers have begun returning parked rigs to service after idling more than 1,000 rigs since the start of last year. The long-term decline in drilling expansion has led to a slowdown in production. Crude output fell by 15,000 barrels per day to 8.45 million barrels per day during the week ended August 5th. “I think it’s just a matter of time before we come into balance,” Paul Crovo, a Philadelphia-based oil and equity analyst at PNC Capital Advisors said. “We think the fundamentals will take care of themselves as we come into the third quarter and later into the fourth quarter and early 2017.”
Hillary Clinton is promising to revitalize Pennsylvania communities hurt by a downturn in the coal and steel industries. With regard to the coal industry she asked whether there was a technology that could create clean energy from coal, and stated that she would revitalize the coal producing areas. Earlier in the primaries, Donald Trump made his position clear on the coal industry saying that he wanted clean coal and that the country would, in his words, have an amazing mining business.
OEF REVIEW:Oil investors are buying contracts that will only pay out if crude oil rises well above US$100 a barrel over the next four years – a clear sign some believe today’s bust is sowing the seeds of the next boom. The options deals, which brokers said bear the hallmarks of trades made by hedge funds, appear to be based on the belief that current low prices will generate a supply crunch. Over the last month, investors have bought call options for late 2018, 2019 and 2020 at strike prices of US$80, US$100 and US$110 a barrel. Previously, some investors had already built super-bullish positions. The options deals suggest a concern about shortages as demand begins to outstrip production – the traditional boom and bust commodities cycle.
OEF REVIEW:Barclays has revised downwards its global exploration and production spending outlook for 2016, now saying such spending could fall 27% this year, down from 15% back in January. Spending in North America is now trending down 40% versus 27% in January, and international spending is down 21% year-over-year. Since the Barclays Upstream Spending Survey published in January, operators representing 71% of total spending have revised budgets to reflect reduced 2016 spending plans amid a sustained lower oil-price outlook.
OEF REVIEW:U.S. crude oil production from the Lower 48 states from new wells (drilled since the start of 2014) made up 48% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2015, up from 22% in 2007. Production from new wells has grown as advances in horizontal drilling and completion techniques led to growth in oil production from low-permeability tight reservoirs. In 2015, production from tight formations – which include, but are not limited to, shale plays – accounted for more than 4 million barrels per day, or 50% of total U.S. oil production.
OEF REVIEW:“We expect legacy assets such as Gorgon will drive long-term growth and create shareholder value for decades to come,” said Chairman and CEO John Watson. “The long-term fundamentals for LNG are attractive, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, and this is a significant milestone for all involved.”
OEF REVIEW:The current crash in oil prices is sowing the seeds of a powerful rebound and a potential supply crunch by the end of the decade, but the prize may go to the US shale industry rather Opec, the world’s energy watchdog has predicted. America’s shale oil producers and Canada’s oil sands will come roaring back from late 2017 onward once the current brutal purge is over, a cycle it described as the “rise, fall and rise again” of the fracking industry. “Anybody who believes the US revolution has stalled should think again. We have been very surprised at how resilient it is,” said Neil Atkinson, head of oil markets at the International Energy Agency.
OEF REVIEW:“2016 State of American Energy report details the economic, job creation, energy security and global leadership opportunities created by our nation’s 21st century energy revolution and the policy challenges we must overcome to ensure that these benefits extend for generations to come. To give a sense of the reach and scope of the industry, each chapter of this report examines the distinctive policy challenges and opportunities through highlights of these issues in seven regions that include all 50 states. The report makes clear that the economic benefits and opportunities provided by the oil and natural gas industry aren’t confined to energy producing states and that the industry could do more with the right energy policies based on market principles and sound science.” Jack N. Gerard, President and CEO, API
OEF REVIEW:Tight oil production in the United States increased from 2007 through April 2015, based on estimates in Energy Information Agency’s (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report, and accounted for more than half of total U.S. oil production in 2015. Tight oil growth has been driven by increasing initial production rates from tight wells in regions analyzed in the report. As drilling techniques and technology improve, producers are able to extract more oil during the initial months of production from new wells.
OEF REVIEW:The 2016 edition of the BP Energy Outlook outlines the ‘most likely’ path for energy demand by fuel based on assumptions and judgements about future changes in policy, technology and the economy, and develops a number of alternative cases to explore key uncertainties. 
OEF REVIEW:According to latest figures from the International Hydropower Association (IHA), the 1,036 GW of hydropower capacity generated over 16 percent of global electricity production in 2014. Looking to the year ahead, IHA identified several trends driving hydropower build-out. Prominent on the list is hydropower’s ability to function as a grid management asset: delivering base- and peak-load energy, frequency response and black-start capabilities. These solutions are recognized as critical to facilitate a successful transition to renewable energy. A second trend fostering steady investment is modernization, uprating, and conversion of existing plants in efforts to secure more efficient and sustainable operations. A third driver motivating fresh momentum for hydropower stems from ancillary hydropower functions that can assist nations in adapting to climate change: providing freshwater for irrigation, drought management and flood protection solutions. 
OEF REVIEW:Several factors have played a part in pushing U.S. crude oil prices below $30 per barrel, including high inventory levels of crude oil, uncertainty about global economic growth, volatility in equity and non-energy commodity markets, and the potential for additional crude oil supply to enter the market. Crude oil and petroleum product inventories, both domestically and internationally, have been growing since mid-2014 and are above five-year averages for this date.
OEF REVIEW:The shale gas boom has proved to be a game changer for the United States economy, bringing about an era of cheap natural gas that has helped to make the country’s industry more competitive. Europe has also been seen as a future shale gas region in recent years, but a Wood Mackenzie survey of global shale gas drilling activity highlights only three European countries – Poland, Ukraine and the UK – as having any shale gas wells scheduled for 2016.
OEF REVIEW:As oil prices continue to decline, North American exploration and production companies have hedged just 15 percent of their total production volumes for 2016, including 14 percent of oil and 18 percent of natural gas, leaving the companies largely exposed to current depressed market prices, according to new analysis from IHS (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight.