Vitol: Shallow Market With Moments At $60 And In $40s

10/10/17 •lweb.es/f3619 •bit.ly/2zSmOLy

According to Ian Taylor, the head of oil trader Vitol, U.S. oil output could have a spike in 2018 before growth flattens for a number of years. Vitol expects U.S. output to climb by 0.5-0.6 million barrels per day next year but the increase would cause cost inflation and make some production loss-making. The anticipated slowdown in U.S. output combined with robust growth in global demand for oil should push prices above the current range of $50-60 per barrel, Taylor said. Vitol has sold most of its oil in storage as it believes the market is tightening.

Sinopec: “Our Refining System Really Likes U.S. Crude”

27/09/17 •lweb.es/f3754 •bit.ly/2AyWEvP

“U.S. crude is becoming more and more popular,” said the world’s biggest refiner Sinopec. There are three reasons for Asian oil buyers’ interest in U.S. crude: first, it fits the configuration of Asian refineries, which like to process high quality so-called light sweet crude that yields more petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel. Second, it’s cheap, with WTI trading at times at a steep discount to other oil benchmarks. Third, the cargoes are bought on a spot basis, giving refiners flexibility to complement their more traditional Middle Eastern supplies that are sourced via long-term contracts.

Future US Offshore Development Plans To Bring Vast Energy Wealth

05/07/17 •lweb.es/f2877 •bit.ly/2tgGGSH

The Trump administration is beginning work on a new five-year offshore oil and gas leasing plan – the federal blueprint for future offshore development – in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Arctic. This is a redo of the Obama administration’s programme for 2017-2022 and seeks public input before officials begin drafting proposals. Currently, 94 percent of federal offshore acreage is off limits to development, with natural gas and oil production being hindered by a lack of access to areas controlled by Washington.

U.S Oil Exports Surge And Complicate Market Rebalancing

06/18/17 •lweb.es/f2869 •bit.ly/2ueR2Gg

US crude exports averaged more than 1 million barrels a day in April, driven by the significant discount of US crude prices relative to global benchmarks. New infrastructure, like the 520,000 barrels a day Dakota Access Pipeline, has reduced costs to move crude to the Gulf Coast, while major projects are underway at US Gulf Coast ports that will increase the region’s export capacity. These outward flows have served as an outlet for rising US crude production and have displaced other barrels that have struggled to then find a home.

Three Key Factors That Are Changing The Oil Trade

05/17/17 •lweb.es/f2844 •bit.ly/2sX1ktC

This article considers three principal drivers for the oil trade: technology, weather and OPEC policy: • Fracking technology is highly influential: The graphs “Crude oil historical patterns”, showing changes over the last 5 years compared to the last 15 and 30 years, and the graph “US Crude oil production” from1983 to 2017, show the relevant impact.• Extreme weather: A growing number of weather events costing $1 billion have been experienced, as well as significant losses in production. • OPEC strategy is less effective now… The graphic “Does OPEC policy influence prices anymore?” asks a very pertinent question.

Citgo: PDVSA Made Lien In Exchange For $1.5 Billion Loan From Rosneft

04/11/17 •lweb.es/f2761 •bit.ly/2q96AJR

A deal to give Russia’s Rosneft 49.9% ownership of US refiner Citgo if Venezuela’s cash-strapped national oil company PDVSA defaults on its loans threatens US national security and should be investigated by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, two US congressmen have said. “This would give Russia clear control over the sixth-largest refinery in our country, the ability to impact gas prices for the American people, and a strategic advantage over US freedom of action globally,” Representative Jeff Duncan, Republican-South Carolina, said in a statement.

More Export Destinations For U.S. Crude In 2016

03/29/17 •lweb.es/f2697 •bit.ly/2oQhXFR

Due to a surge in oil hedges, the oil-price weakness will not prompt US producers to pull back on drilling. The producers rushed to lock in oil prices above $50 a barrel after the OPEC production cuts announcement in November, and will use hedging gains to help plug any budget deficits caused by sub-$50 spot prices. However, most of the hedges expire by 2018, and oil futures prices must recover before producers can lock in prices over $55 a barrel for next year – a level needed for significant tight-oil production growth.

Trump’s “Energy Independence” Order: Both Uncertainty And Opportunity

03/28/17 •lweb.es/f2693 •bit.ly/2ocvx54

President Trump has issued an executive order to dismantle the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan. The “Energy Independence” order lifts a moratorium on federal coal leasing, triggers a review of methane and hydraulic fracturing restrictions, and eliminates use of the Environmental Protection Agency’s “social cost of carbon” in policymaking. From a climate action perspective, there is widespread agreement that the order is bad news for U.S. emissions. Interestingly, 62 percent of Trump voters support taxing and/or regulating pollution causing global warming, and nearly three-quarters think the U.S. should use more renewable energy in future.

Oil At $40 No Problem: Hedging As A Shield

03/20/17 •lweb.es/f2705 •bit.ly/2oTZd5d

American oil explorers are shrugging off the 14% slide in prices this year. The price would have to drop to the $30s or lower to dent the bottom line of many drillers now working U.S. shale fields. That’s because many producers have already locked in future returns with financial contracts that guarantee the price of their oil for most of the rest of the decade. “We’re in a boom again in Texas…” said Michael Webber of the University of Texas’ Energy Institute in Austin. “The cowboy spirit is back. Hedging is playing a big role.”

U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Projects Certificated In 2017

03/07/17 •lweb.es/f2715 •bit.ly/2obKovd

Last year the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) certificated 17.6 billion cubic feet per day of new natural gas pipeline capacity, and so far this year the Commission has certificated more than 7 Billion cubic feet per day. The seven projects certificated during the first few weeks of 2017 include more than 1,500 miles of natural gas pipeline construction and expansions. The pipeline projects are concentrated in the eastern half of the United States to improve access to markets for growing eastern natural gas production, and they have projected 2017 and 2018 in-service dates.

Gulf Of Mexico Lease Sale To Reduce Dependence On Foreign Oil

03/06/17 •lweb.es/f2717 •bit.ly/2nWZ0NX

73 million acres offshore Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida will be offered for oil and gas exploration and development. The proposed lease sale scheduled for August this year would include all available unleased areas in federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and is part of President Trump’s plan to make the United States energy independent. The estimated amount of resources projected to be developed as a result of the proposed lease sale ranges from 0.211 to 1.118 Billion barrels of oil and from 0.547 to 4.424 Trillion cubic feet of gas.

U.S. Department Of Defense Moves Ahead With Green Energy

03/01/17 •lweb.es/f2640 •bit.ly/2ocvx54

The largest U.S. government agency – the Department of Defense, which is also the world’s largest single petroleum buyer – plans to forge ahead under the new administration with a decade-long effort to convert its fuel-hungry operations to renewable power. Why? In combat zones, green energy saves lives. The military’s zeal for renewable power has already had broad impacts on energy contractors, generating hundreds of millions of dollars in contracts for solar companies and helping to reduce fuel consumption. Trump’s Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, has long supported efforts to reduce troop dependence on petroleum.

EIA: U.S. Expected To Become Net Exporter Of Natural Gas By 2018

02/29/17 •lweb.es/f2648 •bit.ly/2peDp3W

The transition of the U.S. to net exporter of natural gas by 2018 is to be driven by declining pipeline imports, growing pipeline exports, and increasing exports of liquefied natural gas. The Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana became the first operating LNG export facility in the Lower 48 states in 2016. By 2021, four LNG export facilities are expected to be completed with a combined operational export capacity of 9.2 billion cubic feet per day. The EIA also projects the U.S. to become a net exporter of total energy in the 2020s.

Shale Break-Even Price Drops 55% On Average

lweb.es/f2644 02.28.2017

Since 2013, the average wellhead break-even price (BEP) for key shale plays has decreased from $80 a barrel to $35/bbl. This represents a drop of over 55%, on average. The wellhead BEP decreased across all key shale plays, with Permian Midland falling by over 60% from $98/bbl in 2013 to $38/bbl in 2016 (for horizontal wells only). Rystad Energy forecasts an average WTI oil price of $60/bbl, which implies a 40% improvement in the cash from operations. This improvement will result in higher investments of the shale operators.